For over a month, President Donald Trump and his administration have been building up anticipation for April 2, a date that has been hyped as the "tariffs Super Bowl." This day was supposed to mark the implementation of a wide range of import taxes that Trump had promised. However, as history has shown with Trump's trade policies, the reality often falls short of the hype. Once again, it appears that the administration's promises are more about generating buzz than taking concrete action.

Reports from Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal over the weekend indicated that not all pledged tariffs would go into effect on April 2 as initially expected. Instead, a smaller batch of tariffs will be announced in the coming weeks, with the possibility of more to follow. However, the situation remains fluid, and the final decision could still change. This uncertainty has added to the confusion and doubt surrounding the administration's trade policy plans.

On Monday, following a Cabinet meeting, Trump himself seemed to downplay the immediate impact of the tariffs, stating that they would be announced in the "very near future." Later that afternoon, he added to the confusion by suggesting that he might "give a lot of countries breaks" and that the US "might be even nicer than that." These comments further muddled the administration's stance on tariffs, leaving many wondering what to expect.

The markets reacted positively to the news that the most severe tariffs might not be implemented as soon as feared. US stocks rose sharply on Monday, with the Dow closing higher by 598 points (1.42%), the S&P 500 rising by 1.76%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 2.27%. Investors were relieved by the possibility of a reprieve from the tariffs, but Trump's comments about additional tariffs added a layer of uncertainty.

Trump had previously labeled April 2 as "Liberation Day," promising massive reciprocal tariffs that would match foreign countries' import taxes dollar for dollar. He had also planned to enact 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, which had been briefly allowed to go into effect earlier in the month. Furthermore, Trump had promised tariffs on a wide variety of goods, including autos, pharmaceuticals, microchips, copper, lumber, and other products. However, it now seems that these product-specific tariffs will not be implemented on April 2.

The situation regarding the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods remains unclear. A White House official told  that no final decision has been made, and tariffs on various sectors and industries may or may not be announced on April 2. Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal reported that reciprocal tariffs will go into effect, possibly as soon as April, but they will be limited to a dozen or so countries. These countries, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent referred to as "the Dirty 15," are those that he claims persistently treat the United States unfairly in their trading practices. This list could include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Vietnam.

Despite the pullback from some of the harshest tariffs, Trump signaled that delays would not be long-term. "We need steel, we need pharmaceuticals, we need aluminum, we need a lot of these things that we sort of don't make anymore, and yet we're equipped to do it all," Trump said at the conclusion of a Cabinet meeting. "So we'll be announcing some of these things in the very near future—not the long future. The very near future."

The administration has been hinting at a walkback for days. On Friday, Trump hinted in the Oval Office that his administration would allow for "flexibility" on tariffs, the first sign of potential exemptions after he had pledged there would be none. "I don't change. But the word 'flexibility' is an important word," Trump said. "So there'll be flexibility, but basically it's reciprocal," he added, noting that most tariffs would simply match foreign countries' taxes dollar for dollar with no carve-outs.

Meanwhile, negotiations are ongoing. The EU postponed its retaliatory tariffs, which were set to go into effect on April 1, as talks continue. Mexico and Canada also delayed plans to retaliate against US tariffs as officials negotiate. On Monday, Trump announced that the US would impose 25% tariffs on any country that purchases oil from Venezuela.

US markets appeared to shrug off the comments, and stocks continued to build on Monday's rally. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.33% as investors sold bonds in favor of riskier assets like stocks, reflecting easing concerns about the impact of Trump's tariffs. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street's fear gauge, slid more than 8% to its lowest level this month. The Fear and Greed Index, which had been in "extreme fear" territory since February 25, shifted into just "fear"—a sign of slightly improving sentiment on Wall Street.

However, Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs are giving investors, businesses, trading partners, and consumers a serious dose of whiplash. This is not the first time we've seen such volatility. Trump campaigned on steep tariffs on Day One, but he failed to deliver on that promise. Instead, he signed several executive actions on his first day in office ordering his administration to investigate whether to pursue tariffs on a wide range of goods. He did announce that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be coming on February 1. February 1 came, and rather than the promised tariffs, Trump said the tariffs would come on February 4. Then, on the eve of their taking effect, Trump announced month-long delays on Canadian and Mexican tariffs after both countries sent delegations to negotiate, offering minor increases to existing border security and promises to take more action to restrict fentanyl crossing into the United States.

Tariffs on China went into place on February 4—but not at the 60% level Trump had promised in December. The 10% tariffs came with a surprising twist: The elimination of the de minimis exclusion, a loophole that allows goods valued at less than $800 to come over the border duty-free. Those packages are numerous and onerous for customs officials to scan for tariffs. The next day, the US Postal Service stopped all package deliveries from China from entering the United States because it was unable to abide by the new trade policy. But hours later, the de minimis exclusion was back on—temporarily—until the Commerce Department could determine how to police it.

Then, Trump promised a "big one," as he called it: reciprocal tariffs. Instead, the plan, as it were, which Trump announced in the Oval Office on February 13 to much fanfare, consisted of a vaguely worded memo that offered few concrete details. Stocks surged that day as investors celebrated a tariff policy that appeared to be a lot of bark with no bite.

On March 3, the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico went into effect—for three days. On March 6, Trump delayed all tariffs on its neighboring countries that comply with the USMCA trade agreement. On March 11, Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Canada’s aluminum and steel but backed off the same day after Ontario agreed to suspend its 25% surcharge on electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota, and New York. The president has also threatened tariffs of up to 250% on Canadian dairy, reciprocal tariffs on Canadian lumber, and 200% tariffs on European alcohol. It’s unclear what the status of those threats is.

Trump implemented tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum on March 12, although they didn’t represent a significant increase over what was already in place. The back and forth has created volatility on Wall Street, confusion for consumers, and massive amounts of uncertainty for businesses, who are paralyzed by their inability to plan for what’s next.

The administration's tariff policies have been a rollercoaster ride, marked by promises, delays, and reversals. While the markets have reacted positively to the possibility of a more measured approach, the constant uncertainty has left investors, businesses, and trading partners on edge. As we approach April 2, it remains to be seen whether the administration will follow through on its promises or continue its pattern of last-minute changes. The only certainty is that the tariff tango is far from over, and the markets will continue to dance to the administration's unpredictable tune.